Too Many ‘Known Unknowns’ in Sri Lanka’s IMF Programme

Abstract

Sri Lanka’s programme is planned to deliver 71 outcomes by the end of September. Presently, as of the end of July, 35 are “met” and 14 are “unknown”. There are 8 more that are “not met”. That means the ratio of unknowns to knowns is about 33% -- rather high for a critical economic recovery programme These “unknowns” primarily encompass quantitative commitments, such as tax revenue and primary balance targets. These are not mere numbers but essential indicators of the improvement in Sri Lanka’s fiscal position. It has been five months since Sri Lanka entered the board-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on its 17th programme. Month-to-month progress has been tracked in the public domain by the IMF Tracker (https://manthri.lk/en/imf_tracker ), a platform maintained by Verité Research. The IMF Tracker identifies programme commitments that have been “met” and “unmet” on verifiable criteria. Those achievements for which no data has been made available to make a reasonable assessment are marked as “unknown”.